Q4 2025

Executive Summary

  • TVL: $42.5m, +18% QoQ Δ

  • Quarterly protocol fees: $327k, +32% QoQ Δ

  • Blended net APY: 9.7% across live strategies

  • Runway coverage: Protocol revenue + treasury yield covers ~130% of current OpEx (run rate).

What mattered this quarter

  • Narrow market breadth and compressed perp basis favored carry, incentives, and market-neutral sleeves over outright beta.

  • The Adaptive Allocation Engine (AAE) leaned on six downtrend-ready indicators (VSD, FRDM, LSI, IRS, SYSM, DTRS) to tilt away from directional risk and route to deeper venues during stress.

  • cbETH Fusion Vault compounded LST carry with gas-aware cadence; StableYield Allocator anchored low-volatility returns; BTC yield benefitted from disciplined funding/basis capture.


Platform Snapshot

Metric
Q4 2025 (to-date)
QoQ Δ
Notes

TVL

$42.5m

+18%

Net inflows + strategy appreciation

Protocol fees

$327k

+32%

Higher volumes in cbETH / StableYield / BTC sleeves

Avg net APY

9.7%

+0.3 pp

Blended across live strategies

Tier mix

Base 34%, Bronze 29%, Silver 23%, Gold 14%

Share of active

Treasury (liquid)

$6.4m

+4%

Low-risk yield ~5.3% (run-rate)

Replace with analytics exports before publishing final.


Strategy Highlights

cbETH Fusion Vault (CFV)

  • Objective: Enhanced ETH staking carry with gas-aware compounding

  • Q4 net: +8.1% (annualized 15.4%), max DD: -2.9%

  • Drivers: LST yield + incentive rotation; execution batched in low-gas windows

  • Docs: /investment-products/cedefi-strategies/defi-strategies#cbeth-fusion-vault-cfv

StableYield Allocator (SYA)

  • Objective: Diversified, low-volatility stablecoin yield across CeFi/DeFi

  • Q4 net: +2.4% (annualized 4.9%)

  • Drivers: Venue switching on utilization/fee/rebate score; peg-risk monitoring

  • Docs: /investment-products/cedefi-strategies/defi-strategies#stableyield-allocator

BTC Yield Aggregator

  • Objective: Compound BTC yield via conservative lending & funding capture

  • Q4 net: +5.6% (annualized 11.2%), max DD: -2.1%

  • Drivers: Negative-funding pockets; disciplined delta-neutral execution

  • Docs: /investment-products/cedefi-strategies/defi-strategies#btc-yield-aggregator


Methodology & Calculations (from our internal paper)

Pricing identities

  • Perp quote as spot basis: .

  • Inverse perp PnL (unit notional, contract size ):

  • Long/short spot + short inverse perp (per-notional):

with hours (funding period).

Delta-hedge consequence For small moves, . ⇒ Long/short portfolio’s dominant risk driver is basis volatility, not spot volatility (delta-neutral).

Market Context & Signals

Observed tape (Q4): Breadth narrow, beta inconsistent; perp basis compressed; funding mixed-to-negative in pockets; gas mostly teens/20s gwei — a regime that structurally favors carry, incentives, and market-neutral sleeves.

AAE signals emphasized

  • VSD throttled pure BTC/ETH exposure on spikes

  • FRDM harvested periods when shorts pay funding

  • LSI routed flow to deeper venues (Aave/Curve/Maker) to reduce gap risk

  • IRS captured APR spikes (Pendle screened well on volatility)

  • SYSM concentrated deposits in safer, high-utilization stable pools

  • DTRS slowed re-risking until momentum stabilized



Financials

Fee mix: Performance 60%, Management 25%, Partner spreads/rebates 15%

Treasury & runway

  • Liquid assets: $6.4m

  • OpEx (run-rate): $1.2m/yr

  • Protocol revenue (annualized): $1.22m

  • Treasury yield (low-risk): ~5.3% (≈ $339k/yr)

  • Projected annual income: ≈ $1.56m vs $1.2m OpEx → ~130% coverage

Replace with current accounting exports and Finance sign-off.


Roadmap

  • 2026-01: Restaking & ETH rollup yield sleeves (phased allowlist)

  • 2026-02: Additional CeDeFi partners for tighter spreads & better fill quality

  • 2026-03: Portfolio Builder v2 (sleeve sizing, scenario testing, tax-lot-aware withdrawals)


Risks & Disclosures

  • Smart-contract & venue risk: Continuous monitoring; caps and circuit breakers in place

  • De-peg/liquidity risk: LSI and SYSM reduce exposure to thin books/unstable pools

  • Market risk: Carry & neutral sleeves can still experience drawdowns

  • This page is educational and not investment advice. Capital at risk.


How to Act


Changelog

  • 2025-12-01: Initial Q4 wiki report published (draft numbers)

  • 2026-01-15 (scheduled): Post-close true-up with audited analytics export

  • 2026-03-31 (scheduled): Add PB v2 notes and sleeve links

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